Long story short, the upcoming races don’t favor either candidate as much as you would think. Texas and Hispanics are a worry for Obama. If VA is a sign, white men are moving to Obama, and Hillary’s support among white women is eroding. Keep an eye on white women. Hillary consistently loses if she gets less than 70% of their vote.
Hillary can’t afford to evenly split delegates in the states she wins, then let him take 2/3 delegates in the states she loses. On average, she has won by 19 pts. On average, he wins by 31. She has survived this by winning larger states. In the future, small wins in big states may not be enough.
Going forward, the most interesting data is going to be how well Hillary does in Texas and Ohio. Obama’s lead may be large enough to force her to NEED a big win in those states. She hasn’t had many big wins. She has only won 11 of 35 contests, and in those 11, she has only won by a large margin in the few she calls home (ny, ak, ok). This would be ok in winner take all republican primaries. In the democrat’s proportional contests though, she may have trouble.
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