I'm playing with a model that simplifies what is going on with the Republican Party. Parties remake themselves a couple of times a century. 
Voters in a parliamentary system vote their hearts and their politicians then turn that into a coalition. In the US's winner take all elections, these coalitions are worked out before the presidential election, mostly during the primary process. Factions representing fiscal and social liberals and conservatives vie for control of the party. They also have to position themselves exactly opposite of the likely leaders on the other side (yin and yang). I think the positions Obama has taken on immigration, homosexuals, and trade have created an opportunity for the opposite to flourish on the other side with Trump.
This isn't that different than what happened in the late 50s/early 60s in both parties. Johnson signed civil rights laws and created the opposite in the Repulbican party. Lincoln's strong stance against slavery similarly created the opposite in the Democratic party in the old South.
Whenever the party shifts is position on these axes, a major primary fight ensues. I believe Republicans are seeing that fight. They are split between young, educated Republicans who are fiscally conservative and socially liberal. They are essentially libertarians. Poor whites and evangelicals on the other hand are the opposite. They are socially very conservative, against Abortion, Gay marriage, and immigrants. They do not understand Libertarians and have not been well served by free trade or reductions in government programs. With angry evangelicals on one side and angry evangelicals on the other, the Republican leadership does not know where to turn. The only thing on which they can all agree is that they do not like the opposite, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Thank You,
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