Finally, there are polls for North Carolina and Indiana. Obama is predicted to lead by a 12 and 15 point margin respectively. Hillary is still expected to win Pennsylvania by 16 points. This means that the ground she will gain with Pennsylvania’s 158 delegates will be erased by the other two states’ combined 187 delegates (115 and 72 respectively.)
Ryan’s Predictions for April:
- Expect the press to not report/downplay the NC/IN polling results. It would kill ratings.
- Expect Republicans to start saying nice things about Hillary. It will help drag things out.
- Expect Obama to shift his attention to McCain. It will make his beating McCain AND Hillary seem inevitable.
- Expect Hillary to shift attention to Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. It is her only chance at the Presidency.
- Expect Bill to start talking about the “Dream Ticket” of Hillary and Obama. It is her only chance at an Executive office.
- Expect short sighted Democrats leaders to agree with Bill.
- Expect thoughtful Democratic leaders to float names of running mates that could help win independents, white men, and swing states. It is our only chance.
- Expect to see me inventing a new dance called the Obama Strut. It is what I do.
Watch the news to see which pundits and leading Democrats will say the things above first. These are the people you should trust.
References:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html
http://www.howeypolitics.com/2008/02/25/howey-gauge-poll-obama-leads-hillary-by-15/
Caveat:
Many of these polls were conducted while video of Hillary’s Bosnia “misremember” was running. Obama’s actual lead will be diluted as the public forgets.
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